The Real Culprits

Kim du Toit
March 18, 2008
9:00 AM EDT
· Society & Culture · Business & Economy

I keep reading about the “sub-prime crisis” (”sub-prime” being business doublespeak for ”risky loans”), and how the banks had it coming, and they were being greedy, and so on and so forth. Jeff Jacoby, however, calls it correctly:

The subprime mortgage collapse is another tale of unintended consequences.

The crisis has its roots in the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, a Carter-era law that purported to prevent “redlining” - denying mortgages to black borrowers - by pressuring banks to make home loans in “low- and moderate-income neighborhoods.” Under the act, banks were to be graded on their attentiveness to the “credit needs” of “predominantly minority neighborhoods.” The higher a bank’s rating, the more likely that regulators would say yes when the bank sought to open a new branch or undertake a merger or acquisition.

But to earn high ratings, banks were forced to make increasingly risky loans to borrowers who wouldn’t qualify for a mortgage under normal standards of creditworthiness. The Community Reinvestment Act, made even more stringent during the Clinton administration, trapped lenders in a Catch-22.

Read the rest for its full flavor.

What is clear, however, is that this mortgage crisis (”crisis” being political doublespeak for ”eventual taxpayer bailout”) is what happens when good intentions replace sound economic or financial principles. It’s a favorite failure of Marxist theory, of course, when despite those good intentions, the market stubbornly acts in the way that it always has. So when all the systemic restraints are arbitrarily removed, the floodgates are opened for the conditions against which the restraints were set.

And then we are all aghast when catastrophe strikes.

I blame Congress for this, of course, because they should know better. It’s not as though the banking industry isn’t well represented on Capitol Hill, after all—banking and allied industries comprise the fourth-largest contingent on Capitol Hill—so it’s a clear case of politicians attempting to bend economic policy into shaping social policy, despite knowing better.

But do they know better? When your wordview is blinkered by the eyeshades of social inequity, it’s easy to think that “redlining” exists because of some malevolent desire to keep minorities from owning property, whereas a sane person would realize that the practice exists to protect the bank (and ultimately the entire system) from a mass of foreclosures, such as what we are facing now.

Here’s Jacoby’s take, in which he simply ascribes Congress’s actions to hubris:

The financial fallout has hurt investors around the world. And all of it thanks to the government, which was sure it understood the credit industry better than the free market did, and confidently created the conditions that made disaster unavoidable.

I’m not so sure I agree with him.

Either Congress was ignorant of the eventual consequences (even though there are several bankers in the House and Senate, and on their respective staffs), or else they were aware of the eventual consequences, and went ahead with the legislation anyway—and unlike Jacoby, I think that action stems from irresponsibility.

Whatever the reason, it’s a classic case of the triumph of economic reality over starry-eyed social engineering; but the worst part is that in no statements have I seen the desire to eliminate those stupid laws from the books.

So all this is going to happen all over again, sometime in the future.


Comments

Bottom of Comments | Comment Form | Original Post

Wait.  Are you suggesting that the fault for this lies somewhere other than with President Bush?  Everyone knows how evil he is.  I have heard that he enjoys personally placing the foreclosure notes on the homes of poor innocent people just trying to make ends meet.  In fact, I’ve also heard that he calls himself “Simon Legree” when he does his evil work.

For insinuating otherwise, I say, “Good day, sir!”

Steve L. | 3/18/2008 09:56 AM EDT |

While I understand some of what you’re saying, I don’t think you’re really pointing in the right direction here. The issue is not so much the fact that sub-prime mortgages were issued, or even that there were too many. It is the fact that these were aggressively and, in hindsight carelessly, bundled into “investment vehicles” that ended up as tangled webs of madness which no one could properly value. The banks who issued the mortgages that were bundled did not do so out of altruism or a requirement of the law, but because they were able to collect the fees up front, then sell the mortgages themselves down the line so they didn’t take on any real risk.

I think the major consequence of all this will simply be that Wall Street itself will become a lesser factor- perhaps it has always been bullshit, and we’re just seeing it now? I am mostly concerned that institutions like Bear Stearns are not being allowed to drown. If you want to find the creeping hand of statism, that’s where to look.

perianwyr | 3/18/2008 10:09 AM EDT |

Well, this is a classic case of a market failure combined with social engineering. Always a receipie for disaster. Which is why I say that what we NEED is more Free Enterprise rather than capitalism tempered by social engineering.

Second, this is a greed problem. Banks and “lending institutions” got greedy and lent money out to everyone with a pulse using teaser rates rather than testing that person’s ability to pay against the REAL rates.

Rampant speculation has almost ALWAYS been at the foundation of most economic disasters. This speculation combined with a lax regulatory environment led to the “collapse.”

To get square again, we need to let some people and businesses fail...it’s the only way at this point.

Achilles | 3/18/2008 11:58 AM EDT |

Simplicity itself Kim. Damn you’re good.

cmblake6 | 3/18/2008 12:15 PM EDT |

Of course, now that we have this crisis and minorities who had bad credit are, shockingly, defaulting on loans, the same agitators are popping out of the woodwork alleging that the banks engaged in “predatory lending”.  So, if you deny loans to minorities with bad credit, you’re a racist industry breaking the law, and if you give loans to minorities with bad credit, you’re a racist industry breaking the law.  I’d rather be a lawyer than a banker, these days…

Brian | 3/18/2008 12:20 PM EDT |

I am not convinced this is what is the root cause.  Although I would agree it is a factor.  From what I have heard, most of the defaults are middle income earners not people from “predominantly minority neighborhoods” as the article suggests.  I believe what happened is that the setting enabled many who would normally exercise restraint, to default.  Why not?  Everyone knows that the government will soften the landing, ie, give away tax payer monies.

No, the way I see it, the middle class saw a deal.  Default on the overpriced house and keep my great income, once used to pay for the house, and move into a great deal on a an under priced one.  A quick way to get rich?

satted | 3/18/2008 12:31 PM EDT |

Kim - I totally agree that directionally, the CRA did not help, but I’m skeptical that it really contributed much to the magnitude of the current problem. 

A big portion of the problem is what were formally “exotic” mortgages with very high Loan/Value ratios (including 100%+) and interest only notes along with ARMs with ridiculous reset terms became mainstream.  I think there were several reasons for this among them that many people seem to have very short historical time frames when it comes to investments (house prices never go down!) and the fact that the brokers originating these loans didn’t keep them in the book.  Throw in a bunch of foreigners with hundreds of billions of dollars (because of our trade deficit) that they literally don’t know what to do with, along with some good old-fashioned fraud and moral hazrard at every step of the chain and you have the formula for a heck of a bubble.  So lots of folks ended up with mortgages that they had no hope of affording come reset time unless their incomes went up drastically and no hope of refinancing unless home values continued to climb.  Plenty of these folks live in mostly white, “upscale” subdivisions where CRA played exactly zero role.

Hopefully we will be getting back to 20% down payment 15 or 30 year fixed notes being the norm.  A decent downpayment is a good screen for whether someone is ready to be a homeowner, e.g. they know how to live below their means and aren’t going to miss a mortgage payment because they had to spend $600 on a new water heater.

sig

sigp225 | 3/18/2008 12:35 PM EDT |

Sig,
That’s a valid point about the CRA, but the point about it is that it enabled much of what came after. Greed, in other words, could be justified and underpinned by “good works”.

Kim du Toit | 3/18/2008 12:54 PM EDT |

Kim -

We are in violent agreement.  Expansion of the fraction of Americans who were homeowners was viewed as 100% positive regardless of how it was accomplished.

sig

sigp225 | 3/18/2008 12:56 PM EDT |

My impression was that most of the bubble was driven by speculators “flipping” houses for profit, and by people living beyond their means, who periodically refinanced to tap their equity to pay off their credit cards.

Am I wrong, or is that part and parcel of what the CRA engendered, or what?

Mark Hagerman | 3/18/2008 01:06 PM EDT |

As usual, “There’s more to it.”

It’s not the original lenders who got into money trouble from the bad loans.  Think about that:  What, then, happened to the mortgage papers?

They were bundled and sold and then repackaged and resold.  (I don’t recall all the labels that became attached to these bundles.  “Collateralized Debt Obligation” is one; “CDO”.  “Mortgage Backed Securities” is another, IIRC; “MBS") Anyhow, many of them were sold as bond packages with AAA ratings.  They were sold to mutual funds and retirement funds as well as these financial institutions which have been writing down tens of billions of dollars.  These packages were used as collateral in the leveraging in the derivatives market.

The crookedness really has been in the entities which gave AAA ratings to junk, and to those who knowingly sold junk as AAA.

And I’ve only scratched the surface…

‘Rat

Desertrat | 3/18/2008 01:13 PM EDT |

I put the blame where Michelle Malkin puts it:  on people who borrowed beyond their means.  Face it, some people just can’t afford a house.  Not everyone can have one.  Them’s the facts.

This is what something called “apartments” are for.  And now, thanks to these idiots who have defaulted on their houses and are now living in apartments, rents are rising.  I pay an extra $50 a month thanks to these ingrates.

I don’t know if I can say “a$$hole” here, but that’s what they are.

otcconan | 3/18/2008 01:39 PM EDT |

The key to this crisis was how risk was offloaded to investors rather than financial institutions. A 20% downpayment was required when banks held the paper. Once it became feasible to bundle mortgages and sell them off to foreigners, hedge funds, and other investors, then the lenders no longer carex much about credit worthiness, just transaction fees. The borrowers flocked in, driven by the very increase in home prices caused by a lot more loans chasing the limited number of houses for sale, and the bubble accelerated. Now that the bubble has burst, it’s essential for the investors holding the paper to take their lumps, as well as the foolish borrowers, in order to cleanse the system. Government guaranty programs are a huge mistake, and simply use the tax money of the prudent to subsidize the foolish. What do people think the lenders will do with the huge number of foreclosed homes? They don’t suddenly disappear-they will be resold to people who can afford them. Housing is the only commodity that people like to see the price go up on, but for buyers, this “crisis” is good, a lot better than trying to buy a house when prices were going up 15-20%/year, which was unsustainable.

Scott Timmer | 3/18/2008 01:55 PM EDT |

You state that it will happen again, and you are absolutely correct.  The laws you note encourage it, but there is another factor which operates to do it as well.  Every time we go through one of these cycles of faddish nonsense, the guy at the local bank or investment bank or fund who bought the crap gets fired.  Generally speaking, he or she is about 35-40 years of age.  The guy(s) on the board who thought it was a good idea (because “everybody’s doin’ it") seldom get the axe (unless he’s maybe the very top guy who already pulled millions out of the hat and can afford to just leave).  The rest of the miscreants just retire.  So there is no organizational memory left in the bank, etc.  Nobody to stand up and screem “BS” the next time the music starts.  So, every ten years, give-or-take a few, we have the S&L;crisis, the lending money to Brazil crisis, the lending money to Russia crisis, the portfolio-insurance crisis (crash), and on and on…

And, as you know, a lot of this crud is developed on the basis that all the markets are:  a) perfectly described by a Normal distribution, and; b) the distributions are time-stable.  Neither of which are true of any human process.  The Crash in 1987 was a 21-sigma event, something that would happen only once in a universe about 10-to-38th power years older than ours, but it happened…

George Clark | 3/18/2008 02:41 PM EDT |

This is crazy, treasonous talk. The constitution gives congress the power to make and AMEND laws. The law of supply and demand, along with gravity and a few others, are LAWS.

So congress can amend them.

QED, suckers, QED.

Fred Z | 3/18/2008 03:46 PM EDT |

I have no sympathy for the idiots who borrowed more money than they could pay back and less for the fools who lent them the money or bought the mortgages from the lenders on the secondary market.  If a corporate board engaged in the type of extreme leveraging practised by the borrowers who obtained ridiculous ARMs and then turned around and borrowed against paper “equity” the howls for blood from the liberals would raise the roof.  Instead, we’re supposed to think of these borrowers as “victims” of “predatory” lending.  Pure nonsense!  They are the beneficiaries of stupid lending practices and the victims of their own greed and stupidity.  Don’t expect me to support any “bailout” (i.e. welfare!).  Plus, if it were just a matter of adjustable rates suddenly adjusting to too high of a rate, the holders of the mortgages would be only too happy to negotiate a lower fixed rate that the borrower could afford (i.e. earning 3% is better than having to foreclose on a 10% you’ll never collect).  Problem is, they lent to people whould could never afford to pay any principal at all.  People who scraped by making interest only payments at low rates while hoping they could sell the house for a profit or borrow more against inflated equity before they had to pay the piper.  Watch for the lawsuits by investors who bought mortgage backed securities where the brokerages did not adequately disclose the risk.  The bloodbath is just starting and any gov’t interference is only going to prolong the pain.  The idiots should pay the price the market demands for their stupidity.  The rest of us should be left alone to shop for bargain real estate.

secarr | 3/18/2008 04:28 PM EDT |

The Bear Stearns bailout isn’t too bad a model.  Their company is taken over by a competitor and the government stabilizes the competitor for a short time.

The Bear Stearns stockholders lose almost everything, as they should for screwing up.  Or they could divide what is left equally between stockholders, that way the small guy is favored while the biggest guys, who should have been diligent, lose the most.

Bear Stearns employees should lose their great retirement packages and golden parachutes and be limited to what they will get from the pension guaranty fund. That is what happens to mere workers when their company goes bust. 

Harsh? Damn straight!  Tell me what besides harsh measures will keep bankers from gambling with other peoples money?

The real problem is that the government regulators won’t do their job. They have plenty of tools and authority to dampen these manias before they become financial disasters.

K | 3/18/2008 04:40 PM EDT |

Ah, wasn’t this the peanut farmer at his finest hour?  I was for a time a real estate appraiser who didn’t believe in inflating value, went strictly by historical data.  I saw one of the largest mortgage underwriters in the country begin in-house appraisals on refinances and new mortgages.  In-house appraisals are one of the major contributors to the S&L;failures in the early 1980’s so once again, history repeats itself while no one paid any heed to the past.

usmc8511 | 3/18/2008 05:40 PM EDT |

LOL, Fred.

Kim du Toit | 3/18/2008 06:33 PM EDT |

I recall in the not so distant past, coupla months or so, anyway, adds for reverse equity loans, in other words, your monthly payment doesn’t even cover the interest on the mortgage, and you know it going in.  You start out in a hole and merrily commence digging deeper from day one.  Now I know the pie in the sky schtick about the value of the property appreciating more quickly than your debt accumulates, allowing you to dump said property down the road at a theoretical profit, or the ever popular line about how in five years the rate will reset to something approaching reality but of course you’ll be making way more then than now, right?  Beuller?  No one’s going to admit otherwise as to their future prospects and so they get sucked in.  Mortgagor meanwhile trades the paper away for cash as fast as they can and goes on to reel in the next dreamer… How did anyone ever figure this was going to work?

yahyah ibn alli | 3/18/2008 07:43 PM EDT |

“Mortgagor meanwhile trades the paper away for cash as fast as they can and goes on to reel in the next dreamer… How did anyone ever figure this was going to work?”

This kind of idea has been around for quite a while.

R.L. Hunter | 3/18/2008 08:09 PM EDT |

I’m not nearly as mad at the bankers and investors as some are.

The CRA (as amended) has loopholes you could fly a C5 through without being overly concerned about the wingtips. Real Estate Professionals (or Imaginors™, as they prefer to be called) seized on them to expand the applicability of the program to more and more borrowers, or simply lied through their teeth about “minority status” to move homes. The bankers were stuck in the Catch-22 Brian (above) noted: refuse the loans and be evil, issue them and be evil… they concluded that the lesser evil was to loan the money, and looked for a way to cover their asses because they knew damn well there was a problem.

The various investment vehicles the mortgages were turned into were an attempt to make lemonade out of extremely sour lemons. Note that as the mortgages moved up the chain their notional value became less and less, as is normal with buying notes. By the time the instruments got to the Bear Stearns level, the “homeowners” could probably have afforded to buy them back; a mortgage with a face value of half a million dollars would have been $100-200K at that point. Basically, if the “buyers” were even making half to three-quarters (in the aggregate) of the payments the notes were sound, and the mortgages covered pretty much the actual value of the houses as living space, exclusive of “energy efficiency”, “community amenities”, and other thinly-disguised taxes.

What happened, of course, is that increased demand based on easy availability of money (good) intersected with the greed of local taxing authorities (the total for permits for construction in San Diego County exceeds $50K per dwelling, and that doesn’t count the “environmental assessment") to drive house prices so high that the aggregate payments of mortgagors wasn’t sufficient to keep the notes creditworthy. The bankers did the best they could, but the rakeoffs finally got so big as to kill the pig.

Householders, as a class, won’t suffer. They’re so far upside down that foreclosure increases their net worth. The very top levels will get bailed out by another round of Find-The-Lady. The poor bastards in the middle will miss a lot of meals, and the Real Estate Professionals who set the process off will shrug and head for Cabo on the banked commissions.

Regards,
Ric

Ric Locke | 3/18/2008 09:50 PM EDT |

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

Yes, there are bankers in Congress...quite a number of them. But I’d assert that, since one can make quite a lot more money in the private sector than in government if one has the skills to be good at running a bank, it’s not the _good_ bankers that are in Congress. Assuming that they know what they’re doing because of their experience in a trade they voluntarily chose to leave (and spent a lot of time and effort to get out of) doesn’t make much sense to me.

And the moral hazard problem created by the fact that the bankers making those risky loans knew in advance that the government wasn’t going to let the whole financial industry completely implode mean that there’s plenty of blame to go around.

Most of it, though, falls on the borrowers who took out loans that they knew they couldn’t afford to pay off. I wouldn’t think that here, of all places, one would need to explicitly comment on the need for personal responsibility for one’s actions.

Matt | 3/19/2008 03:59 PM EDT |

Let us hope McSpain takes Romney as his VP. So when HE dies, we’ll have someone familiar with financial operations on a governmental level.

cmblake6 | 3/19/2008 08:48 PM EDT |

A cartoon primer for the investment side of this debacle can be found here.

Ric | 3/20/2008 02:49 PM EDT |

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