Tag: Evil Bastards

Bad Stats

Lies and Untruths, Numbers & Statistics

Back when I worked for the Great Big Research Company in Johannesburg, I had a boss who had the unnerving habit of doing random checks on my calculations.  (I should point out for my Readers who were born after we discovered the wheel that computations were done not with slide rules but with the newfangled invention called a “calculator” — which could do only the basic math functions of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division — and the literally thousands of numbers were taken off pages and pages of computer printouts from a thing called a “mainframe”.)

Anyway, if the Poison Dwarf (as we not-so-jokingly called him) discovered a single mistake, he would tear it all up and make me redo the entire job, with the rationale that “If I can’t trust one thing, I can’t trust anything.”  The result, after only a couple of these episodes, was that I not only took an inordinate amount of time in performing the calculations, but spent almost as much time rechecking everything to make sure that absolutely every statistic or number I presented to my clients was 100% correct, and they could take the actions I recommended with complete confidence in the strength of the data.

The time spent in doing all this was based on another of the Poison Dwarf’s aphorisms:  “There’s never enough time to do the job properly, but there always seems to be enough time to do things over.”  Well, I never had enough time to do things over — I had client meeting deadlines — so I had to get it right the first time, regardless of the time taken.

That habit persisted with me for the rest of my working career.

I say all this so everyone will know exactly where I stand on bullshit like this (with emphasis added):

A young Florida resident who died in a motorcycle accident is included in the state’s official COVID-19 death count, a state official reveals.
FOX 35 News in Orlando discovered this after asking Orange County Health Officer Dr. Raul Pino about two young COVID-19 patients in their twenties who died, and whether they had any preexisting conditions that contributed to their deaths.
“The first one didn’t have any. He died in a motorcycle accident,” Pino said. Despite this shocking answer, Pino was not aware of this person’s data being removed from the state tally when asked.
“I don’t think so. I have to double-check,” Pino answered. “We were arguing, discussing, or trying to argue with the state. Not because of the numbers — it’s 100… it doesn’t make any difference if it’s 99 — but the fact that the individual didn’t die from COVID-19… died in the crash.”

You stupid fucking quack.  It’s not whether it makes a difference between 99 and 100 — it’s how many more mistakes of this kind have occurred in your compilation of the data.

Remember the Poison Dwarf:  “If I can’t trust one thing, I can’t trust anything.” 

So if one death (1%, in this case) was incorrectly attributed to the Chinkvirus, how many more cases are incorrect?  10%?  20%?  90%?  We don’t know, because the numbers were obviously not checked after being submitted.

Here’s something from Powerline which makes the same case quite succinctly:

Funny, but not so funny.

Here’s the thing.  A lot of decisions, very weighty and momentous decisions, are being made based on the data our much-vaunted medical establishment is presenting.  States’ economies are being damaged or destroyed, people’s livelihoods ditto, and I’m not even going to start to estimate the social cost of foolish governmental decisions taken on the basis of what may turn out to be fatally-flawed data.

So I’m going to mimic the Poison Dwarf (for the first time ever):  I’m not going to trust a single fucking piece of data these assholes present to us, ever again.  As far as I’m concerned, it’s all lies and bullshit, and I don’t trust any of them.

And They’re The Opposite

Africa, BaconLettuceMayo

Both New Wife and I had to deal with this kind of shit before in South Africa.  Every time we insisted on punctuality, we were told to observe “Africa Time”, which makes “mañana” or “domani” look positively hidebound.  Appointment times are simply guidelines, and meeting times wild approximations, but always, always on the late side.  (I’ve always suggested that if these pricks really want to go onto Africa Time, then their salaries can be paid anytime their employer feels like it, ditto welfare payments, and visits to the ER at a hospital would involve a six- to eight-hour wait, regardless of emergency.  Also, bus service would be sporadic, and stores can be opened and closed whenever the proprietors feel like it.)

Here’s what I’m talking about, in part:

The National African American History Museum suggests being on time, self-reliance, avoidance of conflict and intimacy, and rugged individualism are markers of “whiteness.”

So I guess that “non-whiteness (actually, Black)” markers would be:  extreme tardiness, dependence on others (especially government), conflict-seeking and herd behavior.  (I’m not going to touch “intimacy”, although I would suggest that judging from the unwed motherhood statistics among Blacks, they probably need to avoid it a lot more.)

Sorry, but I’m afraid all that’s not American, but African — and we are not Africa.

Of course, these Marxist fuckers want to turn us into Africa (and they already have, in places like Minneapolis), but that’s just not gonna happen.

All this nonsense is just so wrong, I can barely begin to refute it.

I can’t wait for November.

Replacement Time

Gummint, Law and Order, The Gun Thing

This just goes to show how ignorant some people are:

It seems that residents wanting to defend their homes from a mob are no longer allowed to exercise their Second Amendment rights in the city of St. Louis. On Friday, KSDK reported that local prosecutor Kim Gardner got a search warrant for the McCloskey home. And based on the court order, police seized the rifle used by Mark McCloskey, the St. Louis resident who used the weapon to defend his home from a group of protesters who threatened to kill him and his wife. They also seized the handgun Patricia McCloskey used, which was being held by their former attorney.

The ignorant people, in this case, would be this loathsome prosecutor Gardner and the people who “advise” her.

If I’d been in this situation (assuming I only had one gun, which I do, following that terrible canoeing accident on the Brazos or maybe Colorado rivers), I would have replacement guns in the house about, oh, half an hour after the cops left.  Only this time, I’d hide the some of spares where the cops would need a pneumatic drill to get access to them.  Or not.

So from this unhappy situation we should deduce the following:

  1. Never have just one gun per person in the house
  2. Hide a couple of backup guns — not just inside your own house, but in those of a couple trusted friends
  3. Don’t forget to do the same with the ammo for the guns.

If you haven’t made such arrangements already, do it now.

Dept. Of Righteous Shootings

Righteous Shootings

What happens when three armed assholes break into a house, intent on a little involuntary property distribution?

Well, if this is in Florida, all of them get shot by the homeowner:

A teen was facing charges for a would-be armed home invasion robbery in Florida in which his two accomplices were shot and killed and he was wounded, authorities said.
The person who shot them was the homeowner victim who had a gun and used it to defend himself when he encountered the intruders in his home in Wesley Chapel shortly before 1 a.m. Friday.

But wait!  There’s more:

Luis Casado, 21, and Khyle Durham, 21, were shot as they walked down a narrow hallway toward the homeowner. They had guns and covered their faces with black masks.
Jeremiah Trammel, 19, was shot after Casado and Durham went down, Nocco said. He said he ran out of the house as the homeowner went to get another gun to replace the one he had because it jammed.
Nocco said Trammel didn’t get far. A neighbor with a gun caught him and then held him until deputies arrived.

Never mind State Farm:  that’s what I call a good neighbor.  (Of course, had he shot the little prick dead himself, being in fear of his life and all, the ending would have been perfect.  But I’ll take what I can get.)

Homeowner 2.5;  Goblins 0

…which makes me feel a little bit better after reading this sad news.

Let’s Get Defunding

Military, Modernism

Seeing as how everyone’s getting all “defund this” and “defund that”, allow me to offer a few candidates out of this lot:

A U.S. Army email, sent after the Fourth of July to its military and civilian members, included a graphic which claimed saying the phrase “Make America Great Again” is evidence of “white supremacy.”
The graphic listed other behaviors it deemed evidence of white supremacy, including, “Celebration of Columbus Day,” the “Denial of White Privilege,” “Talking about ‘American Exceptionalism,’” and saying “There’s Only One Human Race.”

Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL, duh) is all over this, and he:

…has sent a letter to U.S. Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, demanding an investigation.
Brooks asked McCarthy to answer the following:

1. Who within the Department of the Army is responsible for the creation of the email and document?

2. Who within the Department of the Army approved the email and document?

3. Pursuant to the creation and approval of the document, was there a violation of either the Hatch Act or DoD Directive 1344.10?

4. If a violation of the Hatch Act or DoD Directive 1344.10 is found to have occurred, will those responsible be held accountable for their actions?

5. If it is found that a violation occurred (which seems pretty obvious), how will those federal employees be held accountable for their illegal conduct?

The Army needs to stamp out this bullshit toot sweet, and defund the people responsible (every single one who falls into the above five questions), i.e. either by court-martial and dishonorable discharge, by RIF-ing their asses out of existence or (if some civilian asshole is involved) fire them with loss of all benefits and privileges.  (I leave it to my .dot-mil veteran Readers, e.g. Staff Martin, to offer the precise details in Comments.)

I’m not going to go overboard and throw the “treason” word around — it’s been used way too cavalierly just recently — but if we take on faith that the “MAGA” expression belongs to the C-in-C (and it does), what’s going on here is (at best) gross insubordination.

I’m being quite serious, here.  This nonsense does not belong in our Armed Forces;  their job is to help keep America great, but if they can’t be trusted to do that — and this is a prime indicator that they can’t — there needs to be some kind of ill wind that blows all the non-essential, and even the marginally-essential, REMFs  out into the fucking trash can.

ArmySec McCarthy needs to jump on this quickly, have answers for Brooks with 24 hours, or face termination himself.