I was watching some Eeewwchoob show about the evils of the lottery and how it’s just a disguised tax on stupid people and the poor and yadda yadda yadda.
One of the statements was that if you were to win a lottery with an advertised value of, say, $100 million, if you chose to take the lump sum payout instead of the annual payout, you’d end up with only $26 million, after taxes and so on. ($100 minus the “lump sum penalty minus income tax.)
“Only” $26 million. (Here’s where the “opportunity cost” canard, so beloved of finance people and con artists, comes into play.) In other words, you’d be “losing” $74 million dollars because It’s All A Big Ripoff, Man. Except of course that you wouldn’t be losing anything, but gaining many millions that you never had before.
And I don’t want to hear the old hackneyed saying about whether you buy a lottery ticket or not, you still have about the same chance of winning — which would be true if nobody had ever, ever won a lottery prize. But as the newspapers are full of stories about how X won a lottery and then went broke after only a few years boo hoo, we have to assume that at least some people hit the jackpot. So while the odds against are cripplingly high, they are not impossible.
So I play the lottery every week. I only drop a few bucks at a time, because my feeling is that a $2 ticket is the cheapest dream you can get, and in any event I don’t live close to a casino where the odds are better but the payout is pathetic. And if you know how the stock market can be and is being manipulated by huge institutions and giant index funds like Blackrock and Vanguard, you’d forget trying that form of legalized gambling too.
And I’m not saying the following is true in my case, not at all. But something has occurred to me, as I’ve watched the economic news get worse and worse (thank you FJB) and the outlook becomes gloomier and gloomier, with prices skyrocketing and incomes remaining stagnant or even decreasing, with more and more hints that Social Security will end at some point, etc. etc.
I can’t help wondering that if all that shit really does hit the fan: how many truly desperate people will not just turn to crime, but might take (in Tammy Keel’s immortal words) a sack lunch and a Mauser to the roof of a tall building, in the ultimate expression of nihilistic fatalism and despair.
And I wonder too how many people right now are being held back from doing so by having just the faint hope of that little lottery ticket in their pocket.
