Category: Business

Being Patient

Bad News, Business, Economics

Like many, I suspect, I was somewhat surprised that our GDP shrank a little during Q1, especially as the job market continues to grow (despite hundreds if not thousands of government jobs ending).  However, we have to remember that we essentially started off the year in Q1 with the last remaining month of Bidenomics, and no doubt the hangover from four years of said stupidity was one hell of a handbrake to the start of the year.

Still, I refuse to be a slave to the “Q” mindset so beloved of financial types, where every fiscal quarter has to show growth even if market conditions make it impossible.  Which, I suspect, is what happened here, for all sorts of reasons.

It’s short-term thinking like this which causes trouble in the longer term.

What we do know, however, is that large corporations are moving production back to the U.S. and away from Asia (especially from China yay) to the tune of some $5.2 trillion — but those are just planned investments, i.e. promises, which will take some time to be realized.  In addition, there are planned growths in ship-building which are almost certain to revive once-moribund areas, not to mention making us both more independent in trade and more secure militarily.  But those too are still in the planning stages.

Factories don’t just spring up overnight, in other words.

Listen:  we all knew that to reverse the tide of red ink, both in government spending and the trade deficit, we would have to experience some discomfort.  And while ICE is doing well — from all accounts, over 60,000 illegals (mostly of the career criminal persuasion) have been booted out in the past three months — but as I’ve said before, that still leaves many millions more that still need to be expelled:  millions of whom, we all know, that are sucking up public money in healthcare and education, to name but two areas of ongoing concern.

The question is:  are we on the right track?

I think so.  The moves to reduce tax burdens on the majority of the population, the DOGE-inspired slashing of government spending and the efforts to cut deadwood and make both business and government more efficient — by stopping the inherent inefficiencies of DEI policy, for one — all mean that the long-term prospects for our economy look promising.

And to a large degree, the market swings caused by the tariff business are simply due to the fact that markets hate uncertainty, because they’re slaves to short-term thinking — remember, stock prices are tracked daily.  These are very uncertain times we live in.

But we need to give the whole thing more time to develop.  We didn’t sink into quasi- (and in some cases actual) socialism in a single quarter, either.  That took decades of work by socialists like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and their cohorts in Congress from even before then.  And we’re not going to reverse this tide in a single quarter.  Hell, it may take years.

It didn’t take that long for Javier Milei to effect massive changes in Argentina, but it should be remembered that taming an inflation rate of hundreds is considerably easier than doing the same to an inflation rate in the teens (as we experienced under Biden), let alone getting inflation into low single digits, which in today’s world is almost impossible and takes a supreme effort of will.

But although cheaper energy and the concomitant lowering of the prices of goods and services is going to make a difference, that’s not going to happen immediately because we still have to drill new holes, build new refineries and get more nuclear power generators online to replace the unreliable and fragile Net Zero-style solar- and wind-based power generators so beloved of the Eco-Nazis.  None of that can happen in a single quarter, either.

We’re doing the right thing — and by “we” I mean the Trump Administration, whom we voted into power.  We just need time to get it done, and not be swayed by short-term thinking.

If I Were A Paranoid Man

Marketing / Advertising

We’re all familiar with the situation:  you post something about a government conspiracy and the very next day you get a pop-up ad when you open a web page somewhere:

As I said in the title, if I were a paranoid man…

Not long ago I was running an errand which took me down the horrible I-35 south of Dallas.  It’s horrible not because of the road per se, but because to get to the I-35 south of Dallas from where I am, I have to somehow get around the Dallas downtown area, which as any local yokel will tell you, can be a terrifying experience.  (What tourists or newcomers feel when facing this situation I cannot even begin to fathom.)

Anyway, as any local yokel will tell you, South Dallas is a place to be avoided at all costs (think:  East L.A., South Side Chicago, Boston’s Combat Zone etc.).  Yet there I was, trundling along…

…and got a puncture which tore my right-hand rear tire to shreds.

Fortunately, it happened about 50 yards before an off-ramp, so I managed to get off the interstate and pull into a service station parking lot, there to await the arrival of roadside service.

Tangent:  I know how to change a tire, I’ve done it dozens of times before, but I’m decades older than I was the last time I did it, and as my insurance company provides the service for free… why the hell not?

However, I soon noticed that my environs were not the most salubrious, in that when I went into the little convenience store to get a Coke, the cashier was encased behind what looked like 12″-thick armored glass and stout steel bars.  The message was obvious, so I decided to forego the Coke and get back to my car ASAP.

I didn’t get back inside the car because that way I wouldn’t be able to get a 360° view of my surroundings, and more importantly, by standing next to the car I would have easy access to both my trusty 1911 and its backup, should that be necessary.

I waited for about an hour for the roadside service guy, and was only accosted by one scrote who needed a $5 gift “for gas to get to work”, a likely story as he looked like the last time he worked was during the elder Bush presidency.  Besides, I wasn’t going to get my wallet out only to be confronted by a knife.

Because if that happened, I’d have to shoot the asshole and then would come the cops, the call to my SCCA attorney, endless paperwork, confiscation of my 1911, forget about keeping my appointment… you get the picture:  all that hassle just because I might ventilate someone totally deserving of ventilation.

So I just pointed at my tire-less rim, and snarled that I had my own fucking problems and to leave me the fuck alone.

Which he did, fairly quickly and without any fuss.  Clearly, I didn’t look like a potential victim, for some reason.

Anyway, roadside service arrived and put on my “spare” (just a donut, 2,000-word rant omitted ).  Except that the donut was flat, despite the assurance from my last oil-change provider whom I’d asked to check on the thing (another 2,000-word rant omitted, but he just lost my business).  Fortunately, road service guy had one of those little quick-pump thingies which took care of the problem right there, so off I went, late for my appointment, but buoyed by the certain knowledge that afterwards, I’d have to stop by Discount Tires to get a replacement, oh joy, because there was no way the donut would get me the fifty-odd miles home, on said Dallas-area freeways where you get run off the road for daring to drive at only 70mph.

Anyway, I told you all that so I could tell you this.

Two days ago, I got an email which featured one of these:

It was the first such ad I’ve ever got in this manner, and if I were a paranoid man…

So the question is — because the coincidence seems a little too strong, even for me — how did these hucksters get my email addy?  From the insurance company, or the tire outlet?

Your guesses in Comments.

Afterword #1:  I actually already have one of the above in the trunk of the car, but I couldn’t remember when last I charged it up, which is why I relied on the roadside service guy to handle the problem.  I did recharge it when I got home.

Afterword #2:   I ended up getting four new tires, because apparently the 50,000-mile warranty didn’t cover tires that had passed the 100,000-mile mark some time back.  As the tire guy put it:  “You’re damn lucky you haven’t had at least two blowouts by now.” 
And the only way I was able to afford those four new tires was because of my Readers’ generosity during this, my Last Appeal (which still has a day or so to run, hint, hint ).

Preparing For The Better

Business, Economics, Trumpism

We always talk about “preparing for the worst”, but there’s an equally-compelling reason to prepare for the opposite.  Here’s a good example of this.

I see that POTUS has increased the logging quota on federal lands by 25%, to the consternation of the Usual Idiots.  Ignoring their wails (which is good advice anyway), his reasoning is sound:

The new order serves two purposes. One is to control fires. President Donald Trump said in January that the Los Angeles wildfires were partly caused by California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s refusal to clear brush and dead trees.

The other purpose, though unstated, is likely to increase the supply of lumber and head off potential price increases due to tariffs on Canadian lumber, which could have a cascading effect on the American construction industry.

The second reason is actually the better one.  Of course we should not allow ourselves to be held hostage by the Canucks over timber — and in any event, the more self-sufficient a nation is, the better — but the very last sentence is equally telling.

You see, with Treasury yields falling (meaning that U.S. debt is being bought out — a Good Thing), what will follow the drop in yields is a drop in interest rates, which means that housing will become more affordable.  And the construction industry cannot afford to be choked of its timber supply if building costs are to be contained.

As it is, construction companies face potentially higher labor costs because all the cheap (illegal, lest we forget) laborers are being deported — meaning more citizens working ergo more taxes being paid as opposed to untaxed dollars just being sent south of the border — so if the builders get cheaper and more-plentiful timber supplies, everyone wins.

I don’t see too many downsides to this — it’s a “two (actually three) birds with one stone” scenario — but this is after all a fairly superficial overview because I don’t claim too much expertise in this area to dig more.  Am I missing something?

That Tariff Thing

Business, Drive Time, Economics, Gummint

Ignoring any sensationalism from the Daily Mail  (like ignoring rapaciousness from the IRS), I see that Britishland faces a 10% tariff hike.

Which, using Kim’s patented Law Of Ten Method, means nothing.  (The corollary to said law, when applied to budgeting, says that you can always take 10% off anything without much or indeed any problem.  This is true of a household or corporate budget.)  Remember too that tariffs are not applied to the retail sale price — i.e. what you pay for them — but to the cost of goods in the home country.  Even so, I expect that U.S. retailers will eat some of any wholesale price increases, so the retail cost of goods to the consumer will not be that onerous.  Especially after we’ve just gone through Bidenflation. [25,000-word rant on that topic deleted]

I see this, with amusement:

The UK currently exports around £60billion worth of goods to the US. 

Almost all of these goods will now be taxed 10% to send them to the US, making it more expensive.  

Within this £60billion, British cars make up just over £6billion of the exports. Trump last night announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, again making it more expensive, and less attractive, to buy UK-made motors.

So those Rolls Royces, Bentleys and NuJaguar Duracell cars are going to cost more (not the full 25%, as I expect that the manufacturers thereof will eat at least part if not most of the tariff).  Somehow, I’m pretty sure that the Murkin buyers (plutocrat scum) of said luxury items will not be  driven away by what is not a significant price increase.

Doubtless, my post-lottery Eagle E-type will cost more:

…but I’m pretty sure the lottery winnings would absorb the hit with little notice.  [/snark]

As for companies like AstraZeneca (the Covid guys) with their ~5,000% profit margins, my heart bleeds custard, the chiseling scum.

The Euros (20%), on the other hand, may have a harder time of it, and the Chinese (34%) harder still.  Whatever.  Peruse the table below, and feel free to comment about any of the countries that you may know about.

The Balkans are not listed, but I’ll be curious to see what if anything happens to the price of, say, Prvi Partizan ammo.

Finally, just remember that the United States is the world’s largest market for just about everything made in that world, so if prices rise too high, Americans will just stop buying that imported shit.  Which suits me just fine.  I’d like to see a whole bunch of textile mills, for example, re-open in places like Mississippi, who could sure use the jobs that they lost to the cheaper sweatshops in Asia in not-so-long-ago times, when the Finance assholes moved their operations abroad.

Interesting times.