Speaking of those manky ICE detainment centers, it seems that some illegal aliens have been dying of Covid. Of course, that’s just terrible, according to the Usual Suspects, but some smart guy at Blueberry Town has taken a look at the actual numbers, applied some appropriate statistical methods and inferences, and sucked the air right out of the narrative:
The upshot is that ICE has been testing the heck out of the detainees in its facilities. As of September 11, there are only 20,138 detainees in ICE facilities (down from an average of >50,000 in 2019), and ICE has administered more than 35,000 Covid-19 tests. Recognizing that people cycle through these facilities at varying rates, it is safe to assume that ICE has tested a solid majority of its detainees during the last six months, and possibly the vast majority.
The agency has found 5,810 cases of Covid-19, for a “positivity rate” from testing at an ugly 16.6%. That is the sort of rate that gets journalists screaming at governors, fun banned, and schools firmly virtual.
Sounds horrible, right? Nazzo fast, Guido:
But only 6 detainees have died of the Covid. That is a case-fatality ratio of… 0.1%. Compare that number to the observed case fatality rates in various countries, which are massively higher. The Covid-19 case fatality rate in ICE detention centers is right in line with the seasonal flu. That made us curious.
There might be several explanations for this. ICE facilities might have excellent health care. Well, maybe, but that would be a narrative-buster of the first order. Indeed, a recent whistleblower has contended that at least one ICE facility has under-reported Covid-19 cases, which would suggest an even lower case-fatality rate than indicated by the dashboard.
Through the same link, there seems to be data that says that the median age of people deported from ICE facilities is 30. By comparison, the median age in the United States is about 38. The population in ICE facilities, therefore, is almost certainly significantly younger than the United States in general.
Furthermore, eyeballing that chart above, the ICE facilities seem to have very few people over the age of 70, which represents the preponderance of Covid-19 fatalities in the general US population.
There’s all sorts of other geeky goodness in the article, and I would earnestly recommend that you read all of it. But the executive summary?
There’s not a whole lot to panic about — not on this topic anyway.
Sorry, Commies. Find another issue to care about.
I have a friend who was doing contract work with ICE on the southern border. He’s more-or-less a combat veteran (never in the military but did security work in Iraq and was in a few gunfights) and a nurse practitioner.
Detainees aren’t getting Mayo Clinic/John Hopkins levels of health care, but it’s better than what a lot of Americans are getting.
So how is Law Enforcement using this massive DNA database it’s building with all these tests?