Overshooting

No, that’s not when you shoot off all your ammo at the range and have to drive home with an empty gun (yeah, we’ve all done it, nothing to be ashamed about).  What I’m talking about here is a series of predictive models which are not only wrong, but hopelessly wrong.

We all know (I think, except maybe for “climatologists”) that the way to test your model is to take all the history available except the most recent set, and feed that back data into your model to measure its prediction against the most recent data.  (Back when I used to do this stuff for a living, we used to call it “using history to predict yesterday”).

So here are the conclusions of a whole bunch of predictive models used to predict future temperature change / increase for a specific area:

Looks kinda alarming, doesn’t it?  (Okay. what’s alarming to me is the variation in predicted output between the models, but leave that alone for the moment.)

Now let’s drop the actual recorded data for the period and area into the graph, to see where it falls (same graph, plus actual):

Ummmm yes.  The only model which came even close to reality (Observations) was “INH-CMS-0”, and even that one overstated actual temperature increase by a factor of almost 40%.  Oops.

And by the way?  A change of 1.6 degrees over an average decade over four decades (80 40 years) is what we model builders used to call “noise” — i.e. insignificant.  Never mind a large area like the U.S. Corn Belt;  an increase of 1.6 degrees in air temperature is insignificant in your house.

Here’s the whole analysis, which is long and kinda involved, even for me.  The executive summary is what I’ve reproduced above.

And Robert Spencer gives us the summary of the executive summary, which is:

…or as we statisticians used to call it informally:

And John Hinderaker pointed out something else which should make everyone suspicious (it did me when I first looked at the chart):

Someone pointed out with respect to these data – I would credit him, but I can’t now find the reference – that if it were simply a matter of mathematical errors or inconsistencies, one would expect some models to err on the “hot side” and others on the “cold side” of actual observations. But that isn’t the case: all of the models run hot. That suggests that global warming alarmism is a political, not a scientific, movement.

Yup.  Let’s worry about something else;  this horse (Global Warming Climate Cooling Change©) is dead, and cannot be revived by MOAR HYSTERIA or STILL MOAR WHIPPING.

“More” EU?

Well now, looks like that Zero Emissions or whatever is getting a little pushback in, of all places, Europe:

Farmers across Europe are rising up against the EU, with angry agricultural workers in Spain being the latest who are set to join the growing tractor protest movement.

By using their heavy machinery to block roads in and around major capitals on the continent, farmers in Germany, France and other EU nations have expressed their anger over rising costs, EU environmental policies and cheap food imports which they say are leading to a deterioration in working and living conditions.

…as Jeremy Clarkson discovered on the TV show about his farm in Britishland (which, by the way, has inspired his European counterparts).  Then this:

But as farmers in France, Belgium and Italy staged protests on Monday and Tuesday, and as Spain’s three main agriculture unions said they would soon join them, French president Emmanuel Macron risked inciting further fury by brazenly telling the disgruntled growers: ‘You need more Europe, not less.’

Just another globalist woke asshole who needs to be tossed out on his ear (cf. Fidel Trudeau, FJ Biden, etc.).

In the meantime, I’m watching the whole thing unfold…

Snake In The Astroturf

Here’s a face not known by my Murkin Readers, but probably familiar to those in Britishland:  ITV’s weather reporter on Good Morning Britain, the elfin Laura Tobin.

“Okay Kim,” y’all might say.  “That’s a right purdy lil’ thang, thanks for the pics.”

Unfortunately, this totty is one of those rabid climate change advocates/alarmists, whose slanted opinions on the topic, and frequent injections of said propaganda into her weather reports has even some Brits perturbed.

Just so you know.

Cold Reality

In case any of my Readers didn’t get the memo, we just had one of those cold snaps down here in north Texas, where we get a little Arctic air sent down from our neighbors up north.  For three days, daytime high temperatures never went above freezing (32°F Murkin, 0°C for those of the Napoleonic Persuasion), with wind chills (once again, courtesy of the Canuckis) dropping the “felt” temperatures by another ten or so degrees.  Night-time temps?  You don’t wanna know.

I know, I know:  “That’s Minnesota from November through May” etc. etc.  I used to live in Chicago, remember, where I knew all about cold weather.

The difference is that up north, they know how to handle such temperatures, whereas we don’t.  Builders, for all sorts of economic reasons, seldom install double-glazed windows, even for cooling the searing summer temperatures.  (I remember a window guy asking me why I wanted double glazing on the northerly and easterly sides of the house, “cause there ain’t much call for ’em round here”.)  Insulation — wall, roof and so on:  wouldn’t last the first two weeks in Chicago without somebody dying of cold, but it’s perfectly acceptable down here.

All of which is fine and good, until the deadweight of Gummint gets involved.  Everyone knows of the current feelgood fad of Global Cooling Climate Warming Change©, whereby eeeevil power sources such as oil and natgas have to be Done Away With, replaced by the usual unicorn-fueled farts of solar- and wind power generation, and Texas has lamentably not been spared this bollocks.  Indeed, the laughably-named ERCOT institution has failed, every single year, to actually fulfill their remit and guarantee that the electricity supply would remain constant throughout the past decade, and has actually had the temerity to beg Texans to be sparing of their electricity use during summer where (in case nobody has noticed) things get fucking hot outside and in winter (when we get annual visits from the Polar Express or Blue Norther) to varying degrees of severity and duration.

And I shouldn’t have to tell anyone that Texas is blessed with huge energy reserves — oil, natural gas and coal (sadly, very dirty-burning coal, but better than nothing).

We didn’t experience an electricity outage this time — more, I suspect, by luck than by planning and calculation — but honestly, it gets on my nerves that every winter I have to make sure that I can survive a cold spell by laying in supplies of whatever’s necessary to prevent dying of cold.  And I bet there are a whole bunch of fellow Texans who feel the same, or more strongly.

It’s not like this is some unknown, out-of-left-field occurrence, either, because examples of government idiocy and inadequacy abound, such as with our Neighbors To The North:

Ryan Maue is a US weather and climate guy.  From early last week he was forecasting the incoming polar vortex would bring abysmal cold to virtually all of North America.  Unlike climate activists, he’s not an alarmist except when as he jokingly put it, the real ‘climate emergency’ that would unfold would be temperature in the minus 40s — which is the same in Celsius and Fahrenheit — and colder!

That’s exactly what happened in Alberta on January 12, 2024. The polar vortex moved in and settled over most of the prairies and Northern BC and temperatures dropped like a stone. Maue checked in on “our Canadian friends” in Edmonton, reporting on Jan. 12th at 10:30 reporting: “Bit of a struggle today with the temperature. Currently -48°F (-44 C) with a wind chill of -67°F (-55C).”

That’s the bleak reality.  Here’s how it gets even worse:

January 12, 2024, is the day decarbonization died in Alberta.

People with EVs were caught out as the cars couldn’t hold a charge and could only get half the range, as Global News reported.

As Brian Zinchuk of Pipeline Online reported, wind farms in Alberta quietly all went to sleep as temperatures hit minus 30C the night before. Why?  Because in extremely cold weather, infrastructure like wind turbines with exposed blades and internal mechanics way up high face the risk of embrittlement and… shattering. Even though there was some wind, the risk was too great to continue operations, meaning that almost all of Alberta 4481 MW of wind power became useless. About that same time, the sun went down. Meaning that all of Alberta’s 1650 MW of solar power vanished for the night.

Meanwhile, the remaining coal-fired power plants, which have 820 MW maximum capability, have been running flat-out, presently at 817 MW as I write this at 12:14 on Saturday January 13, 2024 — another frosty day in polar vortex deep freeze, with temperatures across the province ranging from minus 40 to minus 50 degrees Celsius.

Last night, a grid alert was posted by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), meaning the system was at capacity. 

And the reason for the crisis?

The magical thinking of climate activists has been to replace fossil-fueled electrical power generation along with fossil-fueled cars and trucks with renewables and batteries instead, including EV vehicles. Furthermore the climate activists also want to decarbonize home heating, by switching from natural gas to electrical heating or heat pumps.

I should point out that, without exception, these so-called “climate activists” don’t have to live with the consequences of their fairytale nostrums.  They live in areas where such catastrophes are unlikely, and in economic conditions which insulate them [sic]  from any unpleasant outcomes.

The whole house of cards that is climate alarmism is falling — not fast enough, mind you, but falling nevertheless — and the only question remaining is how best we can prod Gummint into shit-canning the whole experiment.  (I’d suggest random hangings, but no doubt someone will have a problem with this.)

When even the Germans are starting to wake up

In the meantime, I’m bracing for the next cold snap.  You know, the way Third World countries’ populations have to do when faced with weather extremes.

It’s just unfortunate that I happen to live in a (once-) First World nation.


Incidentally, I’m not the only Texan who feels this way:

Turning Tide?

Via Reader Mike L (thankee, squire), comes this little snippet that may just be the signal of something or other:

Hertz, which has made a big push into electric vehicles in recent years, has decided it’s time to cut back. The company will sell off a third of its electric fleet, totaling roughly 20,000 vehicles, and use the money they bring to purchase more gasoline powered vehicles.

Electric vehicles have been hurting Hertz’s financials, executives have said, because, despite costing less to maintain, they have higher damage-repair costs and, also, higher depreciation.

“[C]ollision and damage repairs on an EV can often run about twice that associated with a comparable combustion engine vehicle,” Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr said in a recent analyst call.

And EV price declines in the new car market have pushed down the resale value of Hertz’s used EV rental cars.

I lost count how many whammies are contained in the above, but it’s making parts of me tingle, and in a good way.   Okay, let me count the ways:

Higher damage-repair costs, higher depreciation and lower resale value.

Any one of those Bad Things would make me (as Hertz) want to cut back on the Duracells.  All together?  Short-Circuit City.

Ol’ Elon’s not gonna be happy, because if Hertz sneezes, the entire rental business gets diarrhea.

And common sense pokes its head above the parapet.

Reminder Of Earlier Predictions

Of course, this is about the Coming Ice Age Of 1970.

Then there’s this one, more trenchantly stated:

Five hundred years ago, no one was driving, flying, using plastic bags or gas stoves. Electric vehicles were not a thing yet. The only vehicle was a horse, possibly pulling a carriage. There was even less CO2 activity 5000 years ago or 5 million years ago. Yet the climate was changing back then. How does science explain that? Or are they making things up now?

I’ll take that last one for $400, Alex.

Fucking charlatans.