Clinical Observation

Following on from Peter Hitchens’s take (as referenced here) on mass quarantining of the population comes this clear-headed analysis from Hector Drummond:

Communicable disease epidemics almost always rise and fall in a bell-shaped curve. That’s what you rarely hear from the media. They’re always talking about the exponential growth. What they usually fail to mention is that soon after the period of exponential growth, there’s a plateau, and then an exponential drop-off. With these sorts of diseases the curve usually follows the seasons, at least to some degree. Coronaviruses, as far as I can gather, typically die back by mid-spring.

When we look at all the daily graphs from the various countries there’s not much sign that the skyrocket is just around the corner. I don’t trust China’s figures at all, so I’m not going to mention them, but with most other countries we’re seeing either a plateau, a mild recent increase, or a dying back. If you’re an epidemiologist you may want to take issue with my analysis (and please do so if you want), but this doesn’t look like a disease that is threatening disaster upon us all. It looks like a disease that is thinking of putting its feet up for the Easter hols. Perhaps there will be a few weeks increase in some places, some of which may look alarming at the time, but then, most likely, a dying off. Then maybe a new wave in the northern hemisphere in November-December. That’s the time to prepare for. Get some more intensive care beds ready, and some ventilators built for then. Now is not the time for a shutdown and economic self-harm. Now is the time to make hay while the sun shines, and be prepared for when winter comes.
In other words, the horror stories are all in the modelling, not in real life. Sound familiar? This is what the climate change scam was based on. Scary computer models that somehow never got confirmed by real-life data, yet justified government and other institutions in grabbing more power for themselves. This is just another example, only a more effective one than climate change. Here’s a scary-looking computer model, we have to be given wartime powers right now before it happens, if you wait we’ll all be dead. It’s the oldest trick in the book for the ruling class.

And there it is, in a nutshell.  As for proof of government’s intentions and its baleful oppression, you need look no further than (of course) California:

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti threatened “non-essential” businesses Tuesday that if they do not obey the city’s “stay at home” order to close during the pandemic crises, he will cut off their water and their electricity.

Here ya go:

Or, as they say in Chinese:

By the way, while I urge you to read the whole of Drummond’s post above, I think you should go to his Home page and read everything he’s written on the topic.


  1. I can never decide if I am bothered by seeing the average chump get taken in every single time the politicos scream that the sky is falling, or if I enjoy the predictability of it all.

    Really, Mencken got it perfectly 75 years ago with “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

    It does seem to me that the recovery period is getting shorter. Some of my sheep-like friends, family and acquaintances are already grumbling that the whole damn thing looks more and more fake, and has gone on for too long. And I don’t want to sound too superior because I always bite at the hook too, even though I spit it out sooner than most.

    Part of it is our monkey like love of drama and perceived heroics and strength. By ourselves of course, “See me fight the evil corona virus and kill it with my mighty intellect and sword”.

    Oh well, I’m bored of corona virus, I ask our politicians to please go on to the next wholly imaginary bunch of villains threatening another amusing catastrophe.

    1. Yes, but can’t the next wholly imaginary catastrophe the politicians get in an uproar about be some loathsome creature biting and clawing at THEIR throats, like in the Eighties movie “Young Sherlock Holmes”? A self-repairing catastrophe with minimal real-world harm.

  2. Epidemics do follow statistical distribution (usually). Often, they are biphasic: an early period where the virus goes, and then a latency phase where they seem to disappear…..And frequently, they come back again, sometimes worse.

    This is what happened with the so-called Spanish flu of 1918 (although there is some indication that it too originated in China, and was spread to Europe via Chinese workers employed to dig trenches). Started out in the spring of 1918, kind of Petered out during the summer, and came back roaring in the fall and winter…

    At any rate, here is some info from DHS that might be useful

  3. Case on point. 2 or maybe now 3 weeks ago the Media was all in a lather that Clebrity A-Lister Tom Hanks and his wife had tested positive. Since then ……. No news.

    so either ….

    1. it was a false positive , but as a A-Lister he “needed to be tested” even though he had no symptoms.

    2. He was positive but it was a mild case with no bad reaction and now no symptoms and listed as recovered – Not news – doesn’t follow the narrative.

    ……. and I’m I am pretty sure it’s not the third choice.

    3. He was hospitalized and it’s touch and go. We would have heard all about that.

  4. A. Its a 2 week asymptomatic incubation period. Numbers today are 2 weeks out of date.

    2. China lies. Always has, always will. Because Communism. Ditto Iran because islam. Dont trust those numbers.

    Thirdly, reported confirmed cases means numbers that have been TESTED and confirmed. Where do you think accurate testing facilities exist? Certainly not in Africa and places like Venezuela.

    Certainly the numbers are starting to look better, but the data are skewed at best and completely bogus at worst.

    What scares me? Policy makers using shitty data to change rules. .GOV does a crappy job of decision making on their best days. See Detroit, SanFran, Baltimore et al.

    Keep your powder dry. Spicy times coming……

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