Thoughts On Mandelaland Part 2

Another perspective on Seffrica:

Many of you outside of South Africa are wondering what is really going on. So here is a very simple outline. The thing is obviously far more complex and nuanced than can be set out in a brief note but this will give you some picture of what is really happening.

Following the 1994 democratic elections in South Africa, South Africa did really well economically until about 2008. That was also the year that Jacob Zuma was elected president of the ANC. At that point in time, some of us had a sense of disquiet already. But little did any of us understand then the extent of the corruption and weakening of government institutions that would follow. We have no clear idea of the extent of what was stolen during the Jacob Zuma years, other than that it is a stupendous sum of money which this country certainly cannot afford. Eventually however the internal tide within the ANC started to slowly turn against Jacob Zuma. On 18 December 2017 Cyril Ramaphosa was elected as the president of the ANC (and also subsequently became the president of South Africa). But it was a very narrow margin of victory.

The thing about Cyril Ramaphosa is that he is fundamentally a principled man. And certainly, determined to clean up the history of corruption we have seen since 2008. Various steps have been taken by him and the ANC under his guidance to give effect to this. One of the things that was done was to establish a commission chaired by Raymond Zondo, who is the Deputy Chief Justice of South Africa. The purpose of this commission was to investigate the corruption issues and to expose them to the light of day.

Jacob Zuma was required to appear in front of the commission. He effectively refused to do so. He was ordered by the Constitutional Court to do so. He defied the order of the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court in turn ordered his imprisonment for a period of 15 months for contempt of court. This, whatever you call it, is fundamentally the rule of law in action.

Initially there was resistance to imprisonment by Jacob Zuma and his supporters. A week ago, however Jacob Zuma submitted himself to imprisonment. And then all hell broke loose.

What you need to understand is that Jacob Zuma has his powerbase in KwaZulu Natal, where the riots have been at their worst. This is also, as the name will tell you, the home territory of the Zulu nation. And Jacob Zuma is a prominent figure in the Zulu nation. Within the Jacob Zuma camp, individuals set about instigating the so-called protests, riots and looting that you have seen in the media. To a significant extent they leveraged the problems of poverty and inequality in South Africa to achieve their ends. Very often in this country we have areas where many very poor people are resident adjacent to commercial complexes. This was an ideal combination to exploit. In addition to that there are the existing fissures along race lines that exist in our society which were also available to leverage. Audio files doing the rounds encouraged people to attack and destroy what are perceived to be white and white owned businesses. In the end though, many black businesspeople also suffered considerable losses.

The gameplan was to create a situation which would force the hand of the current government. Ideally, it would result in an overreaction by the security forces, with the result that many of the poor and vulnerable would be killed (which is what happened at Marikana a few years back). If that occurred, it would likely force the resignation or removal of Cyril Ramaphosa as president. Meaning the Jacob Zuma camp would have achieved their objective. This is one reason why the security forces have been so careful not to use excessive force in dealing with the riots and the looters.

While there is still a lot of instability in KwaZulu Natal and certain pockets in Gauteng, what is now starting to emerge quite clearly is that the gambit by the Jacob Zuma camp has failed. South African society of all walks has turned its face against this insurrection. In effect, an attempted coup has failed.

South Africans are a strange nation in many ways. They argue and fight amongst themselves but when pushed to the edge, they always pull together for the common good. This has happened again and again over the decades.

This has been perhaps a necessary test of our democracy and of the rule of law. Make no mistake but that South Africa has many very real challenges. But South Africa will pass through this and will put the locust years behind it.”
— Clem Sunter (a scenario planner and strategist whose influential ideas in the 1980s resulted in apartheid South Africa opting for the High Road of political settlement, rather than the Low Road of confrontation and civil war)

I’d like to think that will happen, but it won’t.

Traffic jam of looters’ cars and vans as they try to leave the looted store parking lot:

When the looters exhaust all the food and goods they stole, and try to go back for more, they’re going to find this:

Downtown Pietermaritzburg (provincial capital):

Of course, it’s all fun and games until you have to throw a baby out of a burning building:

Perennial Question

Let’s just ask ourselves yet again why non-Arabs and non-Muslims (some overlap) would prefer to see a Muslim-ruled Greater Palestine (i.e. without a State of Israel) over what we have now.

A Taliban judge has given a terrifying glimpse into life under the Islamist group and the fate that awaits Afghanis if the country falls back under their control.
Gul Rahim, 38, spoke matter-of-factly about cutting hands and legs off thieves, issuing permits for women to leave their homes and toppling walls on gay men as a form of execution in his Taliban-controlled district in central Afghanistan.
He added that his aim is to introduce the Sharia law punishments across the whole of the country if the Taliban can re-take control once America departs, saying: ‘That was our goal and always will be.’

And all those who think the Pals wouldn’t do anything like that oh no, they should be reminded to pick up their entry forms for “Gullible Idiot Of The Year” — warning:  strong competition from the U.S. State Department — at their local 7-11.

Although I have to hand it to the Sha’ria assholes:  those are some pretty creative punishments — which are, let us never forget, absolutely forbidden under our Systemic Racist White Man Hegemonic Constitution.

Thoughts On Mandelaland

Interesting read from Anthony Turton (former military intelligence and analyst)

After a 24 hour orgy of violence, I sit alone in my whale watching room and reflect as I read the many messages that have been sent to me by an informal network. I pause to gather my thoughts before the new day dawns. What will that new sunrise bring?

We now sit with a stark reality that everyone has to deal with, so let me distil, at least for my own use, the essence of what our next faltering steps will be.

The firestorm of violence that engulfed us yesterday was no surprise. We have seen all the warning signs, and were even sent clear unambiguous messages of what was to hit us on Monday morning. Few took heed, and many even dispelled these messages as being the usual drivel from the EFF.

Well they weren’t. In fact the EFF was nowhere to be seen in the day of mayhem. But neither were any elected leaders, or the security forces they command. The Man in the Hat became invisible, just like his police force, who ran out of ammunition where they were present, and had to be resupplied by civilian networks.

Yes this is true. A private security contractor had to procure front line ammunition for the embattled police force, because they had run out early in the day. So let us unpack this single observation so we can learn from it.

We have a leadership vacuum in the country. People in leadership positions, like the Man in the Hat, are there only because of political connections, and not because they have the core skills to do the job. Same with the bloated civil service they command, with too many generals, all unable to plan for, and procure the stuff that’s really needed. Like ammunition.

That same leadership vacuum is present in our intelligence service. If I could collect credible information through my informal network, without any resources at my disposal, and then make reasonably accurate forecasts about what to expect, then why can’t they with their bloated staff compliment and billion Rand budget squandered on inappropriate procurement and self enrichment schemes?

Which brings me back to the core issue – supply chain management. The mayhem of the last 48 hours has wiped out our supply chain in KZN. Last week it was there, but today its gone. That complex web of transactions that moves goods across the landscape, like an army of ants on a single minded mission, each moving their package relentlessly throughout the colony of ants. Our network is now gone.

So as the day dawns I can reliably predict that we will rapidly start to encounter shortages of crucial goods like fuel for motor vehicles, food for hungry stomachs, medication for the sick, cash to grease the wheels of trade and spare parts to keep the machinery of commerce going.

ATMs are gone, so we will rapidly run out of cash. Grocery stores have been destroyed, so even if they can procure goods from the warehouses now burned to the ground, they will be unable to transact because the tills are gone and the point of payment card machines destroyed. The retail malls have been so destroyed that it will take months to rebuild them. More importantly, the Clicks and Diskem pharmacy chains that are the most efficient delivery vehicles for the national vaccine rollout, are simply no more.

I therefore predict an acute shortage of fuel, food and medication. These three things will hit almost everyone, and very soon.

This is my first prediction about which I have great confidence. Enough to make a public statement for which I will gladly be held accountable.

But what about the leadership issue? How might this unfold in the days to come?

What I witnessed over the last 48 hours tells us a lot, so let me distill the essence. In the beginning the mob was in control. Yes they were clearly in control as they marched relentlessly forward like an army ant formation advancing through the jungle. They devoured all before them and they were unstoppable. But importantly, they were controlled and focused. There was a clearly defined plan, so command and control is alive and well, but invisible. They knew when to hit designated targets. They knew where the police were absent. They knew where shopping mall security was most vulnerable. They were collectively acting as part of a plan.

Who are those central but invisible command and control people? Will our intelligence services possibly start to figure this out?

But the other thing that was clearly visible was the rapid way that civil society responded to the communal threat. Groups of citizens rapidly formed into militia, and mostly acted with restraint and to great effect. I don’t know the final numbers, but my gut feel is that more arrests were made by citizens acting in well-organized groups, than by the police.

I also note that some of the militia went beyond the act of arrest, and meted out instantaneous justice. Its unclear what the body count it, but certainly there were many. Some shot, some beaten and some even hacked to pieces by machete. I have seen credible video evidence across this entire range.

But the core lesson is that civil society responded by organizing themselves, rapidly and effectively. We will now see the dawn of a new era, where those civil groups become better organized than the government, which has clearly failed. In effect we had no government over the last 48 hours, because while this mayhem was playing out, Jesse Duarte gave a press briefing about an NEC meeting pretending to still be in control.

The Ruling Party has simply lost control. The civil service is so dysfunctional as to be a liability now easily bypassed by an increasingly confident and effective civil society.

Clearly attempts by government to disarm civilians will fail. Of this I am certain. Just as certain as I am about the emergence of self-organized militia centered on credible leadership and existing networks of security force personnel that have been sidelined by government purges.

This is the real New Dawn. Not the feeble message spewed out by the now embattled and increasingly illegitimate Ruling Party. Their days are numbered.

Will we now see the emergence of an invigorated Moderate Middle, united by core values but free of the shackles of past prejudice and racially defined bias?

Or will the rabble rise in a boiling froth of anger, purging the Ruling Elite with vengeance, just as past revolutions ultimately consumed themselves with relentless waves of counter revolution?

We live in profoundly uncertain times, but the vibrancy of civil society was clearly demonstrated yesterday, as loose molecules came together to form militia capable of clawing back control in the vacuum left by an incompetent Ruling Elite whose time is nearly over.

Anyone who thinks this can’t or won’t happen here is deluding himself.  The only reason that this hasn’t happened in the U.S. so far is that unlike South Africa, Blacks are in the minority;  but it means that where they are a significant proportion of the population, this will happen — think Minneapolis and Ferguson, times ten.

I see burned-out city centers, and rampant poverty and lawlessness therein.  After that, I’d really rather not speculate.

No Kidding

Yet another news snippet that should come as no surprise to anyone who knows anything about the Third World:

Just over half of the world’s urban greenhouse gas emissions come from just 25 mega-cities — 23 of which are located in China — a study has reported.
The cities that emit the most greenhouse gases included Handan, Suzhou, Dalian, Beijing and Tianjin in China — but also Tokyo, Japan, and Moscow, Russia.

And for the gullible eco-weenies:

China’s President Xi Jinping has pledged to cap carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 — part of its commitment to the Paris Agreement.

Of course he has;  provided that such capping does not stand in the way of his aim of global domination.  If it does, he’ll just ignore those goals, relying on the foolish lickspittle Western media [some redundancy]  to assure us all how wonderful this is in raising poverty levels in China.

And lest we also forget this:  the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are responsible for almost 90% of ground-sourced pollution in the northern Pacific Ocean as well.


Update:  Seems like I’m not the only one.

And Speaking Of South Africa

…we have this little situation developing in Mandelaland:

Looting broke out in several cities in South Africa this weekend after the country’s former president, Jacob Zuma, began serving a 15-month sentence last Thursday for contempt in relation to an investigation of corruption during his tenure.

I should note that Zuma — corruptus maximus  on a continent renowned for its systemic corruption — was convicted of perjury, rather than his extensive and bald-faced plundering of South Africa’s already-straitened treasury.

So why are the Usual Suspects copying their BLM counterparts in the U.S.?

Well, it’s all happening in Kwa-Zulu/Natal, because Zuma is a Zulu, you see, and so why not riot and loot all over his homeland?

Needless to say, just as Baltimore was set on fire after some strung-out Black asshole was killed by cops in Minneapolis, so Natal’s little exercise in ad hoc  property redistribution is spreading outwards, and the boys in Johannesburg aren’t going to be left out of the fun, no sirree.

The background to all of this is actually a combination of two factors:  the grinding poverty that persists in South Africa, and the fact that the hapless and incompetent government has not been able to get even close to vaccinating its people against the Wuhan Menace.  The plague that has ensued has resulted in knee-jerk lockdowns, preventable deaths by the hundreds of thousands, and a deepening of the already-critical economic slump.

The second article on the topic is priceless, and contains this gem:

Perhaps most alarming are reports of ordinary people “forming armed groups to protect businesses, homes in KwaZulu-Natal”, and videos on social media which purport to show armed, ad hoc citizens’ militias and private security out on the streets.

Alarming?  This is Africa, old son.  That’s what you get when you have this situation:

A mosque has also been set on fire in Mayville Durban.
“They were not fighting, they were running for their lives. They were innocent people. We don’t know how they died,” Ismaeel said, alleging that there are “no police” — and indeed that “Police are themselves are targets. You call police they can’t come.”
This squares with reports from Pietermaritzburg, where at least two malls have been looted and one raised [sic] by fire, with the BBC saying that riot police who attempted to disperse looters with rubber bullets were met with live ammunition in return.
Police also came under fire on a freeway near a mall in Durban, where many malls, stores, and at least one factory have been looted, with one officer being hit in the leg.

For some reason, I feel an urge to go to the range