Two Takes, Same Conclusion

First take:

You won’t hear this on CNN, but Putin’s Army of Darkness, in the most complex and ambitious ground maneuver operation since World War 2, following the Soviet “deep war” playbook, is also working on cutting off the Ukrainian army group in the Donbass from Kiev. This is by far the most capable (or only capable) large portion of the Ukrainian army. Yesterday, its main reserves of diesel fuel were destroyed from the air. It will soon be cut off and immobile.

Once that happens, the entire Donbass front collapses (they will no longer have a “front”), and BILLIONS of dollars in U.S.-funded or U.S.-supplied weaponry will be captured almost without a battle. (To be clear, it’s almost all U.S. funded or supplied—even most of the Soviet vintage stuff was bought and shipped in from Poland, Czechia, etc. by the CIA, “off the books” but well documented in videos of tank trains crossing the border into Ukraine, in 2015-2016.)

The Russians have finally entered Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city, very close to the Russian border. Previously, they had bypassed it the same way that America bypassed every town in southern Iraq to reach Baghdad in 2003. On Saturday night, they finally wasted all significant, organized resistance with a rain of thermobaric death in the outskirts. Today, they started to go in and mop up. Of course, it’s not a job for one day.

Second take:

It remains to be seen if Putin’s plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day one.

Ukrainian troops are putting up a valiant fight facing long odds and difficult conditions. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages.  It can, and has, attacked Ukraine from three different directions. The Russian military holds a decided advantage in manpower, as well as air, naval and armor superiority.  It has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting alone.

Believing Russia’s assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts.

Sobering stuff.  And given the fog of war at the moment, both are plausible and well-reasoned arguments.


  1. There’s a joke going around Moscow lately, that translates something like:

    “Hey, do you know what’s the latest model iPhone?”
    “The one you’ve got is the last one you’ll have.”

    Putin might win the war, but I think he already lost the peace.

  2. The international community=the globalist oligarchs. Sorry, establishment, I won’t be Standing with Soros.

  3. Lesson for the next generation or two. NEVER give up your MEGA wespons. NEVER FUCKING EVER !

    The Uke’s gave up thousands of nukes for a worthless piece of paper. The South African white govt gave up nukes (sfter working with the Israelis ) and then promptly collapsed into a commie cesspool. The Libyans gave up on nuke development and again decended into chaos.

    So children to come, in your time if nukes are still around, KEEP THEM. If they have been replaced by some back engineered alien tech, never give that up. The concept of MAD will always apply.

    I fully expect a whole bunch of countries like Japan and Saudi to have mega weapons in a year or two. They will have seen what is going on now and learned their lesson.

  4. I too have heard rumours that the war in Ukraine is going much better for Putin than the Western media is saying.

    If the Donbass troops do surrender I hope they destroy their equipment.

  5. I’m not following this war closely, but my assumption is that it will go like the Winter War. The Ukrainians will defend their country valiantly and kill a lot of Russians, just like the Finns, but will lose. Hope I’m wrong but quantity is important in a land war.

    And afterwards, the Europeans will still need gas, oil and coal and will buy it from the Russians.

  6. Most everything rah-rah-ukraine I’ve read has been wrong, or used images/vidya from years ago. Funniest was the “Ghost Pilot”, who was an actual ghost, in that he didn’t exist.

    The other side of this, where Putin is taking care of business long neglected seems to have more factual basis, and more independent corroboration.

    I’ll give you a real life example of how screwed up the cheerleader set is. The CEO of the bigrainbowcorp I work for declared we aren’t doing business with Russia (amongst a litany of other things) while this is going on. (Wasn’t aware we did in any way). One of the things we’re doing is cutting loose contractors we had working in Russia (Who develop software in a company we bought).

    So the upshot is there’s a group of Russians that had no say in this matter, no choice, are now out of work. See that Putin! We can fight too!.

    Whatever. Just like any of the pet causes of the left coast set, All hearts and minds are with you.

    Reading the big words on the email, I was wondering where this righteous indignation was two months ago when he was all to willing to enforce Joey Potato’s mandates on his employees.

    1. With the current round of sanctions, paying people in Russia is already a monumental PITA. There’s gonna be a new Iron Curtain coming down. Divesting now is probably a smart move.

  7. I’ve never bought into the rosy assessments of the Ukranian resistance, it’s just math. David & Goliath is memorable only because it never happens. Ukraine is fucked.

    Meanwhile, President Shitstain cleared the way for Russia’s pipeline while killing ours; now we’re buying 600k barrels a day from Putin, the better to fund his little war.

  8. I hope the Ukrainians get in touch with their inner Red Dawn types and the partisans destroy the Russians but I’m not holding my breath.

    You’re absolutely right about Creepy Joe reversing Trump’s policy of American oil independence. As oil prices rise they benefit Putin financially. We could export fuel to Europe rather than the Russians. that would go a long way to offset trade imbalances. But oh no, creepy Joe think wind and sunshine is enough to power our country.


      1. Putin should pull his troops immediately. The end is already concluded, just needs ink on the page

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