Change — An Alternative View

In this article, Rick Moran worries about Orange County Going Socialist, and What That Means:

Orange County Is Reagan Country No More
They used to vote Republican in huge numbers in Orange County, California. The county used to be one of the most Republican in the country, but with Democrat Katie Porter unseating GOP incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters, Republicans are beginning to look nervously at 2020 and wonder where all their votes have gone.

And Moran’s take is:

Is Trump accelerating the GOP decline? There’s no doubt that Trump’s antics as president have energized his base. They are, if anything, more loyal and enthusiastic today than they were when he was elected.
The rest of the country? Not so much.
As leader of the party, Trump is responsible for its growth or decline. Right now, it’s declining across the board. The answer is not goosing Trump’s base supporters. The answer has to be broadening the appeal of the party.

I’m not so sure. I think that the answer to the Orange County change is simple:  I bet that Hispanic voters (i.e. Socialists) are moving in;  but mostly, Republican voters are leaving California.  And as Orange County has (or had) a huge number of suburban middle-class families — the people most adversely affected by California’s insane government — it’s a simple case of changing demographics.

I know that the plural of anecdote is not data, but not long ago I gave a lift to a one-time Orange County resident (a conservative Republican, by his own admission) who had moved to Plano because he was totally sick of California government’s effect on his small business.  He told me that he wasn’t the only one;  almost all his friends from his neighborhood (also Republicans) had either already left the state or were in the final stages of doing so.  And he admitted to me that he voted for Trump in 2016, as had all those same friends whether still in California or not.

I likewise suspect (also from anecdote) that this is happening in Ventura County as well.

I would love to see the population-shift statistics from Orange County by party affiliation to see if that, and not Trump, has been the reason for the change in voting patterns.  If that is the case, there’s nothing Trump (or any Republican) can do about it.

Oh, and one more thing:  I think I persuaded my ex-Californian passenger to buy a gun and get his carry permit — and I’m pretty sure he’s going to do it because when I gave him the names of a few of our local gun shops, he keyed them into his phone.  (I told him that he should do it just to stick it in CalGov Jerry Brown’s eye, and he laughed like hell at the thought.)

One at a time, folks;  one at a time.


  1. Cheating for sure. Look at the Orange County votes for the R. Now tell me with a straight face that most of them voted D for the Senate and House. Cheating for sure.

    Of course, this was my afternoon lesson from *cough*Rush*Cough*

  2. I’ve watched Ventura County go from conservative to reliably liberal over the last three decades; all is lost in California. When I finally retire, I’ll join the ranks of Kim’s readers who have decamped to more hospitable socio-political climes.

  3. I lived in Los Angeles ’92 – ’94. Republican Mayor and Governor. But… you could literally feel the change coming. They were both really last gasps.

    The Mexicans started in East LA but were already fanning out across any affordable town in the area. Orange County was on borrowed time even back then. Time’s up.

  4. I’m a current but eventually ex-Orange County resident and there are couple of things going on.
    – Non-partisan primaries where the top two go on to the General Election. That is how we got the choice of Finestain or deLeon for Senator. There were no R options for many state positions.
    – Demographic change, as mentioned
    – Rampant and uncontested voting fraud before, during, and after the election..

  5. Government teat starts to dry up would look like a down turn on the business cycle. If it was not for government contracts southern California would have dried up long ago.

    That and the only things left in CA are the Fruits and the Nuts. Let them have it. they will sell if for bread in about 10 years and we can repossess it.

  6. Well Done, Kim. And, as you well know, not all of the Calexiters are going to TX, some of us have found peace and tranquility amongst the sage of NV – because Clark Co (Las Vegas) is like L.A.-East.

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