Overshooting

No, that’s not when you shoot off all your ammo at the range and have to drive home with an empty gun (yeah, we’ve all done it, nothing to be ashamed about).  What I’m talking about here is a series of predictive models which are not only wrong, but hopelessly wrong.

We all know (I think, except maybe for “climatologists”) that the way to test your model is to take all the history available except the most recent set, and feed that back data into your model to measure its prediction against the most recent data.  (Back when I used to do this stuff for a living, we used to call it “using history to predict yesterday”).

So here are the conclusions of a whole bunch of predictive models used to predict future temperature change / increase for a specific area:

Looks kinda alarming, doesn’t it?  (Okay. what’s alarming to me is the variation in predicted output between the models, but leave that alone for the moment.)

Now let’s drop the actual recorded data for the period and area into the graph, to see where it falls (same graph, plus actual):

Ummmm yes.  The only model which came even close to reality (Observations) was “INH-CMS-0”, and even that one overstated actual temperature increase by a factor of almost 40%.  Oops.

And by the way?  A change of 1.6 degrees over an average decade over four decades (80 40 years) is what we model builders used to call “noise” — i.e. insignificant.  Never mind a large area like the U.S. Corn Belt;  an increase of 1.6 degrees in air temperature is insignificant in your house.

Here’s the whole analysis, which is long and kinda involved, even for me.  The executive summary is what I’ve reproduced above.

And Robert Spencer gives us the summary of the executive summary, which is:

…or as we statisticians used to call it informally:

And John Hinderaker pointed out something else which should make everyone suspicious (it did me when I first looked at the chart):

Someone pointed out with respect to these data – I would credit him, but I can’t now find the reference – that if it were simply a matter of mathematical errors or inconsistencies, one would expect some models to err on the “hot side” and others on the “cold side” of actual observations. But that isn’t the case: all of the models run hot. That suggests that global warming alarmism is a political, not a scientific, movement.

Yup.  Let’s worry about something else;  this horse (Global Warming Climate Cooling Change©) is dead, and cannot be revived by MOAR HYSTERIA or STILL MOAR WHIPPING.

“Dear Dr. Kim”

Here’s an interesting situation:  a letter from each side of a dispute.

Hers:

Mon cher Médecin du Toit:

“I am the girlfriend of a famous English footballer, but mon Dieu!  he gives me beaucoup de mals de tête, because he is always flirting and making the love with other women.  And when I argue with him and tell him to stop the affaires, he gets tout à fait  angry with me.

“Not long ago, en fait, he actually made me leave his chambre à hotel  because I was réprimanding  him for kissing another woman right in front of me, and showing me no respect!

“I give to him myself and everything he wants of me, yet it seems to be not enough.

“Monsieur le médecin, que faire?”

— Une femme derangée, Paris

Dear Deranged: 

Let me get this straight:  you get involved with a  young, rich and successful footballer, and you expect him to treat you properly?  You didn’t mention his ethnic group / race, but I don’t need to know that because from experience, his kind behaves more or less the same, regardless of race or background.  (Your own countryman David Ginola was, in his time, no different from your guy, and he only “settled down” after he retired from football and, well, grew up.)

There is no easy answer to this problem.  You were attracted to this guy for — let’s face it — his body, fame and fortune (in no specific order).  If he hadn’t had any of those, you wouldn’t have given him a second glance.  Unfortunately, those same attributes make it difficult for him to treat you “properly” because — let’s face it again — there are lots of women like you, and faced with that smorgasbord, very few men of that type are going to remain celibate let alone faithful for long. 

You’ve made your choice, so there it is:  live with it, or leave it.  Jeff Bezos is already taken, so short of getting a job in telemarketing or food service, your options are to go with a less famous but equally-rich guy, but beware:  the competition for them is even greater than for footballers who are, to be honest, a euro a dozen and if I may be… franc, you’re not that special.

Bonne chance.

And from the other half of this relationship:

“Yo Doctor, whatever:

“My main woman is batshit crazy, and no matter how much loot ‘n jewels ‘n stuff I give her, she’s always complaining.  I know I don’t always behave well, but you know?  when you’re earning over fifty grand a week, you always gotta prove to the Guvnor that you’re worth it, and that’s like stressful.  So yeah, sometimes I get a little outta control, but I have to do it to keep my balance going, yeah?

“Also, last season I scored like seventeen goals, and this year only three, so like people are wondering if it’s all over for me, yeah?  And I’m not even an old man of thirty yet, and I might not get picked for England again because I “party too hard” or some shit.  Know what that does to my head, right?

“And then when I get home or to my hotel room or whatever, my girl gets on my case because I did like twenty tequilas and kissed some bitch who stuck her mouth into my face.

“So I’m getting shit at the club, the newspapers think I’m some kind of degenerate, and my main squeeze thinks I’m seven kinds of arsehole.

“Doctor, what can I do, man?”

— Football God

Dear Godless,

If you think life is tough now, just wait until your career is over, your health has gone down the drain and the only relationship you have with women is through child support cheques.

I don’t blame you, though:  I blame the fact that people with questionable skills (sportsmen, actors etc.) are overpaid and start thinking that a) the gravy train will last forever and that b) they are immortal and nobody can tell them what to do. 

My advice is to read — I know, read? — something called “The Gods Of The Copybook Headings“, and have it all explained to you by someone with a little more than the O-levels you clearly missed out on. 

Perhaps then you’ll stop acting like an overindulged child, but I doubt it.  Oh, and don’t expect your French girlfriend to put up with you forever — Frog chicks can be pretty tough about this kind of thing, and you’re fortunate that she hasn’t shot you dead or poisoned your breakfast cereal, yet.  Remember that she too has options;  only they’re not footballers but rich older men who want and will pay, a lot more than you are, for whatever it is she’s selling.

I’d wish you good luck, but you’ve already had that (football talent, youth and a club scout who spotted you earlier on), and you’re pissing it all away instead of going on your knees every day and thanking God for it.  So:  have fun with whatever remains of your worthless life.

News Roundup

Speaking of pigs:



...whereupon mobs of angry citizens start hanging and shooting the illegals — oh wait, this is NYFC, nothing happened afterwards.  Never mind, carry on.


...oy, the insufferable little bitch is going to be impossible now.

From the Pulpit Chronicles:


...now if they’d sung folk songs, there’d be executions.

Time for some International Relations:


...are you sure it’s not angry parents or Catholics, you asshole government thugs?


...gosh, now I wonder which ethnic group they’re talking to, specifically?
#Somalis

In Election News:


...I just want the ATF gig, and I’m not a Senator.


...as US Democrat Socialists take notes for their own October 2024 arrangements.


...oh well, as long as they didn’t waste it.  Useless asswipes.


...I guess Katie Hopkins was already booked elsewhere, otherwise why get the “40-day wonder” (who is Conservative but NOT conservative) to speak?

In Marketing News:


...Marketing Rule #1:  always establish your customer base numbers before starting your business.  Even if it’s a religion.


...I’m confused:  satisfaction 20 minutes after ordering, or 20 minutes after the product is delivered?


...and in related news, the Clintons pre-announce that they have an alibi for when she has her unfortunate accident or commits “suicide”.

And in the newly-labeled 

     

 

And in more ShowBiz News:


...LOL “confirms” — like she could deny it:

And to get that horrible visual banished from your brain:


There ya go… and that’s the news.

Straight Out Of The Marxist Playbook

Via Robert Shibley at Insty’s place:

One academic who has written about his approach is Professor Asao Inoue, who claims that individualism is an undesirable aspect of “whiteness.” In his courses, students are not graded down for failing to write in standard English. Instead, he has implemented a “labor based” grading system in which students are graded on the basis of the amount of effort they claim to have put in on an assignment.

Why is this out of the Marxist playbook?  Marxism postulates that what counts in production is not output, but input;  i.e. that the eight hours worked by an assembly-line worker is equivalent to the eight hours worked by the company owner.   (Also see:  women’s professional tennis prize money “parity” at Wimbledon.)

Of course, anyone with a brain knows this to be false, but in the (Marxist) scheme of “equity”, reality has to conform to the dialectic.  Or, to put it into quasi-academic language:

The Marxian process of change through the conflict of opposing forces, whereby a given contradiction is characterized by a primary and a secondary aspect, the secondary succumbing to the primary, which is then transformed into an aspect of a new contradiction. (American Heritage Dictionary)

Gone Greek

Following my earlier post about Going Greek, I got this from Frequent Reader and Looongtime Friend Mrs. Sorenson (a.k.a. The Catholic):

Going Greek?  Why yes, yes we have. Twice this year actually 😌

Parga and Lefkada.  Go there.

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To start you off, breakfast from the Green Bakery, Parga.  All fresh, all made on the premises.

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One of Parga’s beaches.  Clear water everywhere you go.  Why is the bottle in the picture you say?  Because this is a taverna half way up the hill from the beach.  One simply HAS to stop and have an icy beer and nibbles, in order to make it up the rest of the hill.

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A little something from our favourite port-side restaurant.

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Said Green Bakery – fresh bread, huge fruit salads, fantastic coffee, great service, tables in the small courtyard to the left, lean-on bars at the shop inside.  Quick moving queues every morning.  Less than 50 yards from our apartment.

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This is Parga.  Hideous eh?  Lined with restaurants and quirky shops of all sorts, bars overlooking the port.

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You can get water taxis to the beach with the bar above.  The water really is this clear.

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Just so you know BA flights aren’t all bad – I’d drunk the champagne already, sorry!

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About 50km from Parga — private beach attached to the first hotel.

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From the viewing platform at the hotel.  Had to suffer this each night we were there.
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This helped tho!

Greece and the Greek Islands (Rhodes and Crete are both lovely), good food, great sights, nice people — bugger learning Greek, just scoff the food and you’ll be Greek enough for them!
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Fair Warning

I’m starting a new category today.  It’s called “Shootin’ Time”, and it has nothing to do with guns, per se.  Rather, it has to do with news items that makes one want to go to the guns and kill ’em all, the mood as exemplified in this pic:

…or, in a thumbnail:

Here’s a sample headline (no link because I can’t find the article and it doesn’t matter):

This will replace the old “Red Curtain Of Blood” tag because it’s become clear that nowadays, rage is insufficient;  what’s needed is bullets, and lots of ’em, to deal with the utter bastardy that confronts us.

Posts in this category will appear as often as I come across examples of the above.  There may be lots.