Realpolitik

Kim du Toit
April 9, 2008
9:00 AM CDT
· News Wire

So with Hillary Clinton winning the Pennsylvania Democrat primary in handy fashion last night, it looks as though we’re in for a battle to the bitter end between the forces of “traditional” leftism (Clinton) and “radical” socialism (Obama).

The interesting part for me is not that Clinton is going to try to win this thing by hook or by crook—we should expect no less from a Clinton—but that her side makes a very good strategic point.

While Obama’s followers are screaming about “number of delegates” and “popular majority” (unsurprising, for a bunch of socialists), the nagging fact for the Democrat Party is where Clinton has won: California, New York, and Massachusetts—no surprises there; they’re a lock for Democrats, typically—but also the “swing” states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and (most likely) Florida. No politician can hope to win a general election without at least two out of those last three, and Obama’s chances in those states are low to zip.

So the realpolitik question arises for the Democrats: do they want to field a candidate who can win, or one who satisfies the litmus tests of the party’s radical wing, but is almost certain to lose in a general election?

The idealists have it easy: it’s better to lose with integrity than to win by compromise.

The realists, on the other hand, think that change, even radical change, is only accomplished in increments, because (with one shining exception) Americans are uncomfortable with revolutions.

There’s a lesson to be learned here by conservatives, if Obama wins the nomination by popular acclaim and then rides triumphantly into a Mondale-style debacle.


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